Ian Dobbs
Head of Wholesale & Carbon Markets Expert, Tasman Environmental Markets
Ian brings more than 25 years of trading and risk-management experience across financial markets in the UK, South Africa and New Zealand — from running bank trading books in bonds, rates and currencies to trading futures on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and co-founding a derivatives trading firm. Having navigated the Asian Currency Crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis, Ian now applies that hard-won market insight to carbon, leading TEM’s wholesale trading desk and providing clients with a front-row view of the forces shaping global carbon markets. Read more about Ian.
Voluntary Carbon Market · REDD+
High End of REDD+ Market Set for Volatility
Over the past 9–12 months, the REDD+ sector has experienced a significant divergence in price trends. A relatively small group of well-rated, well-known projects has enjoyed price stability or even appreciation, while the broader REDD+ market has struggled with inconsistent buyer interest and declining prices.
This divergence has been driven in part by the voluntary market’s increasing focus on quality. However, it has been amplified by shrinking supply from one flagship project: Indonesia’s Katingan Peatland Restoration and Conservation Project. The country’s 2021 moratorium on carbon credit exports halted new issuances from Katingan, previously one of the most widely traded high-quality REDD+ projects on the market. As existing stocks dwindled, prices began to rise. Vintage 2020 Katingan credits, for example, rallied in price over 175% between December 2024 and April of this year as they became increasingly difficult to source. This scarcity encouraged buyers to shift toward other well-rated REDD+ projects, providing broader price support across the premium segment. This landscape is now set to change.
Katingan REDD+ credits at a glance: key price movements and supply figures for the Indonesian Katingan Peatland Restoration and Conservation Project, as at July 2026.
Indonesia officially lifted its four-year moratorium on international carbon credit exports in October 2025, raising expectations of a swift return of Katingan credits to the market. However, nine months later, new vintages are still not available for spot purchase. While these delays have frustrated many participants, a significant influx of high-quality REDD+ supply from the Katingan project now appears imminent. The implications for the upper end of the REDD+ market should not be underestimated. Up to 18 million Katingan credits from vintages starting in 2021 are expected to enter the market. Vintage 2020 Katingan credits have already started to retrace the previous gains and are currently offered in the market around 40% cheaper than just a couple of months ago. When the new volume arrives, intensified competition among offtakers to monetize their freshly issued credits is likely to drive prices lower still. These declines are unlikely to be limited to Katingan alone. Demand for alternative high-quality REDD+ projects will probably ease as buyers return to sourcing Katingan, putting additional downward pressure on prices across the premium segment in the coming months.
This information has been prepared by Tasman Environmental Markets Australia Pty Ltd (TEM), a corporate authorised representative (ABN 97 659 245 011, CAR 001297708) of TEM Financial Services Pty Limited (ABN 58 142 268 479, AFSL 430036). This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide you with financial advice or take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs.